Written by Maple Capital Management on June 24, 2022.
Fixed Income Commentary – June 2022
We Got the May Flowers! Bond yields hit a ceiling in May and retreated lower in a sign that investors may believe most of the Fed’s rate hikes have been priced into market yields. All points along the Treasury yield curve between one and ten years moved a bit lower from April month end. This […]
Tapping Into Maple – Inflation Cures Inflation
For most of the twenty-five years prior to 2020, low inflation was the norm in the US (and in most developed economies). PCE* inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure for inflation, spent most of that time below 2%. In fact, in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), deflation was the chief worry of policymakers. […]
Tapping Into Maple – Myth of Market Timing
Financial market performance since the start of the year, and in particular since the end of the first quarter, has been sobering to put it mildly. While these type of market gyrations are never fun, it may be helpful to provide some context. In the last ten years, there have been just two quarters when […]
Fixed Income Commentary – May 2022
April Showers…Bring May Flowers? Bond yields continue to realign to the new paradigm of higher inflation and shifting monetary policy. While lower prices for existing bond holdings may be unpleasant, unrealized losses are temporary in nature and higher yields are a very attractive development for any investment activity from this point forward: yields are the […]
Economic Commentary – Q1 2022
Quarter in Review • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended the global economy and has added another complexity to the ongoing inflation problem. • Equity markets closed the quarter on a positive note in March but were still negative for the quarter. Energy was far and away the best performing sector during the quarter due […]
Fixed Income Commentary – April 2022
Miserable March Following the “Forgettable February” theme, “Miserable March” was not a pretty month for bond returns, but the future income component on new bond investments will be more appealing as a result. Yields rose considerably during the month — by 90 basis points (bps) on the two-year Treasury, 50bps on the ten-year note, and […]
Fixed Income Commentary – March 2022
Forgettable February Bond yields rose in February as market expectations of Fed rate hikes gathered steam, but the outbreak of hostilities at the end of the month limited the climb. Earlier in the month, several Fed officials on the more hawkish end of the spectrum expressed the view that a 50 basis point (0.50%, or […]
Tapping into Maple – An update on the Russia – Ukraine conflict
Russia’s war in Ukraine, a humanitarian tragedy and a sad turn of events for the proud Russian people, has certainly cast a pall over global financial markets in short order. The shocking development also greatly complicates the global economic outlook since it comes as much of the world is still fighting the pandemic and dealing […]
Market Update
Making Sense of the 2022 Volatility Volatility has returned to financial markets since the start of the year as a result of various issues including: 1) the well-telegraphed end of quantitative easing by the Fed and its first short term rate increase planned for next month, 2) persistent inflation, and 3) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. […]