Happy New Year! Bond yields rose modestly in December in a fitting end to the year: COVID is still a significant problem, but the economy is showing its resilience, growth and inflation remain firm, and rate hikes are now on the horizon for 2022. As a result of higher Treasury yields, the total return for […]
Year-End Review Our format this month takes a slightly different approach. First, we provide some brief color on what transpired in the bond market last month. Next, we offer some comments on economic reports and what they portend for the future. Lastly, we present some brief commentary on each of the broad sectors of the […]
“Short Supply” – Tracy Chapman Key Takeaways Most of the action in October for Treasury yields was in the two to ten-year part of the curve, where yields rose from 6 to 25 basis points. As of now, two rate hikes next year are reflected in market yields. Third quarter GDP came in at just […]
“The Chain” – Fleetwood Mac Key Takeaways September saw yields move higher, out of the range they held for most of the third quarter, as Fed Chair Powell announced a tapering plan will come to fruition, likely after its November meeting. Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages are still headlines impacting the global economy, but […]
“It’s Time” – Imagine Dragons Key Takeaways August saw a slight increase in bond yields across the curve and continued strengthening of the economy. Fed Powell confirmed the likelihood of “tapering” the Fed’s monthly asset purchases by year end in his comments from Jackson Hole. Powell also reiterated his expectation that inflation will prove transitory. […]
“Up & Up” – Coldplay Key Takeaways Bond yields fell during the month on news suggesting some slowing in the recovery from the pandemic. Despite supply constraints that continue to affect production across numerous industries, both here and abroad, the 6.5% annualized real GDP figure was impressive, although slightly below expectations. The resurgence of Covid-19 […]
Re-opening Theme – An Opportunity to Exit Client’s Exposure to Oil Maple Capital used the prevalent re-opening theme in the equity market as an opportunity to eliminate our client’s exposure to the oil commodity in most portfolios. In our view, investors are not being properly compensated for assuming the rising risk of long-term volume declines […]
Quarter in Review • Equity markets continue to establish new records as corporate earnings and consumer confidence recover. • The Fed has begun discussing when and how to begin pulling back on stimulus but it will be a long process. • Supply constraints due to the pandemic are straining many industries and elongating delivery times. […]
“Higher Power” – Coldplay Key Takeaways The Fed’s rhetoric shifted in June as Powell’s post-FOMC comments suggested the removal of some of the stimulus measures that have been in place. There is a bit more concern around the trajectory of inflation. Several FOMC members now see a rate hike in 2022 as more likely, and […]
“Slow & Steady” – Of Monsters & Men Key Takeaways Like last month, bond yields were relatively unchanged even as the economy continues to heat up, equity markets continue to rally, and inflation measures creep higher. Investors are left to debate whether the most recent signs of inflation will persist or are just transitory due […]